May 1, 2008

Hopkins, you magnificent bastard.

We all counted you out of the NCAA tournament when you were 3-5, and then you went and beat Navy and Maryland to nab yet another at-large bid. We now know we will only pry the postseason away from your cold, dead, non-league-affiliated hands.

Automatic qualifiers are for sissies, man.

Of course, technically only Loyola (ECAC) and Colgate (Patriot League) have secured a place in the NCAA tournament by winning their respective leagues' AQs. But based on their current records, seven other teams can breathe easy this weekend - Duke, Georgetown, Johns Hopkins, Maryland, North Carolina, Syracuse, and Virginia.

These teams have already done enough to meet the standards of the NCAA selection committee, which uses record against top opponents according to RPI, strength of schedule, and the team's personal RPI as primary selection criteria for at-large bids.

That leaves seven spaces available in the field of 16, which will be announced Sunday on ESPNU. Five of them will go to the AQs in the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA), the America East, the Mid-Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC), the Great Western Lacrosse League (GWLL), and the Ivy League, all of which will be decided this week.

The remaining two berths are up for grabs, and plenty can happen between now and Sunday to shuffle the deck. Let's take a look at some of this weekend's games to see how they'll work.

Click here for the NCAA's most recently published RPI report for Division I men's lacrosse.

CAA Tournament
(Championship Game: Hofstra at Drexel)

If either of these teams wants to dance, it will have to win the CAA title. Drexel is 13-3, but none of those wins came against a top-20 team.

America East Tournament
(Semifinals: Stony Brook-Albany, Binghamton-UMBC)

UMBC has nice wins over Maryland and Ohio State, but otherwise lacks the RPI (19) and SOS (36) to make an overwhelming case for the NCAA tournament. Albany (RPI 23, SOS 20), which missed the semifinals by a hairsbreadth last year, would definitely need the AQ to last beyond this weekend.

MAAC Tournament
(Semifinals: VMI-Providence, Canisius-Manhattan)

Winner takes all; everyone else watches the tournament on TV. None of these teams have the numbers to do it without the AQ.

GWLL Tournament
(Semifinals: Quinnipiac-Notre Dame, Denver-Ohio State)

Only Quinnipiac truly needs the AQ; Notre Dame, Denver and Ohio State can probably settle for the runner-up spot and still get an at-large bid. But that's three teams competing for two slots, so no team should feel comfortable in Birmingham, Mich., until it has at least one more win under its belt. The Irish's at-large stock could rise or fall depending on Loyola's performance against Johns Hopkins (see below).

Princeton at Brown

This game could be an academic exercise for the Bears, who are mathematical underdogs, barring a series of stunning upsets to boost their numbers. But the game means plenty to Princeton. A loss to Brown would simultaneously give the Ivy League AQ to Cornell and drive down Princeton's RPI (14). If the Tigers do steal the AQ, the Big Red eked out enough top-20 wins (4-3) to secure an at-large bid.

Loyola at Hopkins

But these teams are already in, you said! Yes, but the game still has some implications. Loyola's stock is high enough that a win over its Charles Street rival could boost Notre Dame's at-large chances. (The Irish won at Evergreen, 7-6, in both teams' season opener.)

Syracuse at Colgate

Another one in which the participants don't have anything riding on the game, but other teams need to bet the farm. If the Raiders can beat the Orange, they'll give a lift to the entire Patriot League. Colgate lost to Army, split games against Navy, and beat Bucknell twice - bubble teams all. The Raiders also lost to both Ohio State and Denver, so this game could have a ripple effect on the GWLL too.